More than half a year before the elections, the NCA partners based in the KwaZulu Natal province including KwaZulu Natal Christian Council (KZNCC) through its membership and active partners like Democracy Development Programme (DDP) and Diakonia Council of Churches were already engaging in extensive civic education, covering issues like the right to vote, political tolerance, training of provincial election observers, they also engaged in violence monitoring and peace and conflict mediation. On election day the work of partners was highly visible as they were able to deploy close to 300 observers across the province and especially in areas and points previously considered violence hotspots. KZN has been the most volatile region in South Africa in previous elections but in 2009 the province impressed the south Africa and the world as the anticipated violence did not happen. While many factors contributed to this situation including mature political leadership, the work on NCA partners over the years and especially in the period running up to the elections certainly contributed to this positive outcome
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Moreblessings Chidaushe is NCAs regional
advisor in Southern Africa |
The dust around the South African elections has now settled, a new government, the 4th South African government, under the controversial administration of Jacob Zuma is now in place. Predicting African National Congress (ANC) victory was no rocket science, the money and the support were apparently in abundance. More than R200 million was spent on the campaign trail and Zuma won by a landslide but what may not have necessarily been anticipated was that the ANC would not get the two thirds majority it would have needed to dominate policy and decision making –( a significant plus for the consolidation of democracy in the country). The Democratic Alliance (DA) – a white dominated party has become the official opposition having won 14% of the votes. The new born Congress of the People (COPE) garnered 8% of the votes.
In his inaugural speech on May 9th, Zuma’s tone was much reconciliatory and progressive, highlighting that the country needs to come together and move on. A cabinet has now been sworn in and six new ministries have been created outside the traditional 28 ministries at a reported one billion rand extra cost. Only one opposition member - of the VF party has been given a cabinet post. Although not yet achieved, significant progress has been made in terms of the 50/50 agenda, with a total of 4 of the 8 ANC provincial Premiers being female and 14 of 34 ministers also being female. The women ministers are commendably being placed in traditionally male dominated ministries including defense, home affairs, correctional services and mining. New on the block is a ministry for Women which has been combined with the Youth, children and Disability. While it is now all systems go, many questions are being asked for instance about the capacity of the ANC to deliver, the quality of the cabinet , the relevance of the new ministries and many challenges also face the ANC in the coming five years.
South Africa is the second highest country in the world with inequalities (after Brazil). Impressive economic growth of the 70s and 80s has earned the country middle income country status but the growth divident has not translated to decreasing poverty on the ground. Much like under the apartheid regime, the majority of black South Africans remain poor and marginalized. Policies and efforts of the first three governments have had little impact on redressing the situation. The ANC much recognizes this and in-fact, its manifesto does highlight these challenges and thus prioritize for the ANC government in the coming five tears the key areas of:
- High unemployment
- Poverty
- Deepening inequality
- Rural marginalization
To address these challenges, creation of decent work and sustainable livelihoods, education, health, crime, rural development including land reform, food production and security will be targeted. Whether or not the ANC government will be able to deliver for the benefit of its people - only time will tell.
Some potential challenges await the ANC in the coming years:
A divided society
The Mbeki question brought to the fore the issue of division along tribal lines - largely Zulu and Xhosa lines. It has been evident since the Polokwane conference in 2007 and through the campaign period that the elections became much about getting one tribe out and the other into power. The question now is, will the tribal tussles end and all can come to work together and do more for the country? Another dimension is the white voice has spoken with a not so small voice making itself the official opposition. Although the whites are minority and the country can never again go back to the apartheid era, the dynamics of the different ideologies and interests (black, white, Zulu, Xhosa) converging can create scenario which may lead to either the consolidation or undermining of democracy in the country. Should the parties be able to work together despite their differences then South Africa can be congratulated on a mature democracy. The opposite will undermine democracy as one party dominates above the rest and certainly undermine the spirit of achieving more by working together.
Resources
Unfortunately the macroeconomic outlook is not necessarily in the Zuma Administration’s favor. The government annual budget for 2009 is in excess of R800billion and already a deficit 3.8% exists. Export earnings are projected to decrease by 1.4%, the consumer price inflation falls from 11.6% in 2008 to 5.8% in 2009 and the Gross Domestic Product also falls from 3.1% in 2008 to 1.2% in 2009 a grim picture increasing the new government’s challenges to delivery. These are estimates made before the new government came into power and with the increase in the number of ministries; it is not yet clear where the extra resources will come from – a huge resource gap therefore presents an immediate and present challenge for performance.
Capacity to deliver
Service delivery remains a major challenge in South Africa, the country has seen a record number of increases in service delivery demonstrations in last few years as the masses revolt against the lack of performance in service delivery by local municipalities. Capacity constraints have been such a significant factor affecting the municipality expenditures to the extent that under spending has become a norm with huge sums being returned to treasury every year. The technical expertise remains lacking with the country relying heavily on foreign labor. Although efforts are being made to address the issue of capacity constraints, it will be a long time and process before this can be addressed; hence the current government may face the same levels of displeasure as the Mbeki government for failing to deliver at local level – but then again will this really matter as long as a people’s government is in place?
Neo-liberalism vs pro-poor growth/development
Recent South African economic growth is owed to initiatives like the Growth Economic and Redistribution Policy (GEAR ) – a neo-liberal self imposed structural adjustment programme designed much along the Washington Consensus, a programme much criticized for its anti –poor ideology. Much like in the rest of the developing world, structural adjustment programmes have resulted in more widespread poverty dismissing the nexus between growth and poverty reduction. In efforts to assure the international community and uphold their confidence in the country (now with the world’s longest serving finance minister gone!), both the ANC Treasurer and the new Finance Minister have indicated that the country’s economic policies will not change , (at least not much). Such a scenario puts the Zuma government in an awkward position in trying to fulfill its mandate as a national government but also responding to international/external pressures of the global village South Africa finds itself co-existing in. The tension between the neo-liberal agenda and the government’s priorities and pro-poor policies will definitely be worth watching in the coming few years.
International credit crunch – lower demand for export commodities, falling gold prices and weakening rand:
The prevailing international context is not and will not help the Zuma government much either. The IMF has recently revised the global and continental projected growth rates focusing on a grimmer picture. Although the South African government so far insists that the crunch will not bite much locally, as the international growth continues to shrink the impact will definitely be felt in South Africa and especially by the poorest with high job losses as witnessed already by the motor , mining and tourism industries. International and regional demand for goods is definitely reducing and so are gold prices leading to the continued weakening of the rand. This impact will also be felt stronger as the capacity of South Africa’s regional trading partners continues to be eroded and their ability to trade with South Africa is also eroded.
All said and done, South Africans spoke and achieved their wishes through a very democratic election process. Although there are challenges, it is too early to judge how the Zuma administration will perform but the good thing is that it has been given a chance to prove itself. The rest of the world can only wish South Africa good luck.
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