Acting Before Disaster Strikes: How NCA is Making Humanitarian Response More Proactive

What if humanitarian organisations could help people before a disaster happens, not after?

Text: Danielle Preiss and Maria Bedsvaag Photos: NCA

Published 07. Jul 2026 Updated 08. Jul 2026

mann som snakker til en folkemengde i Malawi

For decades, humanitarian response has largely been reactive. A flood arrives, a drought worsens, or a storm destroys homes, and only then does emergency assistance begin to flow. Often, by the time aid reaches affected communities, families may already have lost crops, livestock, income, and even loved ones.

A growing approach known as anticipatory action is helping to change that.

At Norwegian Church Aid (NCA), anticipatory action is becoming an increasingly important part of how we prepare for and respond to humanitarian crises. By using weather forecasts, scientific modelling, and early warning systems, we can act before a predicted hazard turns into a full-scale disaster, helping communities protect what matters most.

From reacting to preventing

Imagine receiving a warning that a major flood is likely to hit your community in two weeks.

If you know the flood is coming, you may have time to move livestock to higher ground, reinforce your home, store clean water, protect important belongings, or relocate your family to safety. But without support or resources, many households are unable to take these steps.

This is where anticipatory action comes in.

The approach enables humanitarian organisations to release assistance before a disaster strikes, giving vulnerable communities the opportunity to act early. Instead of waiting for needs to escalate, support is provided when people can still reduce the impact.

The difference may seem simple, but it can be transformative.

How does anticipatory action work?

Although every context is different, anticipatory action relies on three key elements that are agreed in advance:

Forecast-based triggers that indicate a high likelihood of a crisis occurring

Pre-agreed actions that will be implemented once those triggers are reached

Pre-arranged financing that can be released immediately

This means that when warning thresholds are reached, there is no need to spend precious days or weeks discussing what should happen or how it should be funded. The system is already in place.

For communities facing flood risk, for example, forecasts of rainfall and river levels can trigger actions such as cash transfers, distribution of water purification supplies, support for evacuations, or preparations of safe spaces for women and girls.

Because funding is available in advance, families can take protective measures before the worst impacts arrive.

A smarter way to save lives and livelihoods

Anticipatory action is proving that acting early is not only more humane, it is also more effective.

A study by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) across ten countries found that every US dollar invested in anticipatory action generated up to seven dollars in avoided losses and additional benefits.

The evidence extends beyond economics.

Studies from countries including Somalia, Bangladesh, and Nepal show that people who receive assistance before a crisis strikes experience less hunger, lower stress levels, and reduced protection risks. Early support can also reduce household tensions and help protect women and girls from gender-based violence during periods of crisis.

Bangladesh offers one of the clearest examples. During floods in 2024, forecast-based systems enabled response funding to be released within minutes of warning thresholds being reached. Assistance reached around 500,000 people within five days, far faster than previous responses, which often took months to mobilise.

Where does anticipatory action fit?

Anticipatory action sits in the critical space between preparedness and emergency response.

Disaster preparedness helps communities understand risks and prepare for future shocks. Emergency response addresses immediate needs after a disaster has occurred.

Anticipatory action bridges the gap between the two.

It focuses on the brief but crucial window after a warning has been issued and before impacts are fully felt. This is often the period when relatively small interventions can make the biggest difference.

When combined with strong preparedness measures, anticipatory action enables faster recovery, strengthens resilience, and reduces humanitarian needs before they escalate.

How NCA is putting anticipatory action into practice

NCA has long worked with disaster preparedness and humanitarian response. Today, we are expanding that work by strengthening our use of anticipatory action across multiple countries.

This requires close collaboration with communities, governments, meteorological services, and humanitarian partners to establish the forecasting systems, trigger mechanisms, agreed actions, and financing needed for early response.

Following feasibility studies conducted in 2025, several NCA country programmes are now developing anticipatory action mechanisms for pilot implementation in 2026, including:

Flood preparedness in South Sudan

Flood and heat-wave response in Pakistan

Drought response in Ethiopia

Early action in Malawi

In Malawi, NCA-DCA is already supporting an approach that combines inclusive early warning systems with forecast-based cash assistance.

The system is designed to ensure that warnings and support reach people who are often excluded, including individuals with disabilities and those facing language barriers.

In March 2026, when forecasts indicated severe flooding in areas where NCA-DCA operates, the mechanism was activated.

As a result, 1,300 people received unconditional cash support before floodwaters peaked.

Rather than waiting until damage had occurred, many households used the cash to buy materials to reinforce their homes. Others relocated to safer areas.

For these families, the assistance wasn't about recovering from a disaster. It was about reducing its impact before it happened.

More frequent weather-related disasters

Climate change is making weather-related disasters more frequent and more severe. At the same time, humanitarian needs continue to outpace available resources.

In this context, acting earlier is becoming increasingly important.

By expanding anticipatory action across its programmes, NCA aims to help shift humanitarian response from a model that reacts to crises toward one that helps prevent the worst impacts from occurring in the first place.

It is a shift built on evidence, preparedness, partnership, and local leadership.

Most importantly, it is a shift that puts people in a stronger position before disaster strikes. Protecting lives, livelihoods, and dignity when it matters most.